Road to Gold 01.ii—Predicting the Oscar Nominations Special Edition
In which Zac, using far too many factors (including his gut), predicts what names we'll be seeing Thursday morning.
The time has finally come: nominations for the 97th Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow, Thursday, January 23. This year has been one where the only thing that is truly predictable is just how unpredictable so much of this race has been. Outside the race for Best Actor, there isn’t a single category that has felt locked down, and any number of surprises could happen at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Below, I’ve compiled my list of predictions, based on a few criteria. First, as you all know, we’ve been tracking precursor wins throughout the season—these play heavily into my thinking for many categories (e.g., Best Actress). Secondly, I have been following along with several industry and industry-adjacent publications (Variety, Vanity Fair, NextBestPicture, and IndieWire, to name a few), and have taken their views into consideration—it’s been fun to see their evolving takes throughout the season, and I can’t help but view VF and Variety as having a little rivalry. Third, and perhaps the least reliable, is my gut. This year, my gut is telling me that Wicked is relatively strong, while Emilia Pérez is losing some steam due online (again, the Best Actress category is a good example of this). I have had a lot of luck in predicting Oscar winners the last several years, and it’s been a fun challenge to apply my previous process to the overall list.
Obviously, there will be surprises—I’ve accounted for that here, but chances are, I’ll be wrong, and those shocks and snubs will happen where I don’t see them coming. But let’s dive in.
Best Picture
My Predictions:
Anora (Neon)
The Brutalist (A24)
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)
Conclave (Focus Features)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
A Real Pain (Searchlight)
Sing Sing (A24)
Wicked (Universal)
On the cusp: The Substance, I’m Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, September 5, The Apprentice, Challengers
Best Director
My Predictions:
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Edward Berger (Conclave)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)
On the cusp: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu), Jon M. Chu (Wicked)
Best Actress
My Predictions:
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Marianne Jean Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
On the cusp: Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Kate Winslet (Lee), Zendaya (Challengers)
I won’t make comments for each of these categories, but I think Emilia Pérez will miss in some unexpected places—Best Actress is one of them, but Gascón is going against my gut right now, despite nominations at BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes (Erivo did the same, and I think it’s going to be one or the other). It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Best Actor
My Predictions:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Daniel Craig (Queer)
Coleman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
On the cusp: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice OR A Different Man), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Best Supporting Actress
My Predictions:
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
On the cusp: Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Michele Austin (Hard Truths)
Best Supporting Actor
My Predictions:
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
On the cusp: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)
Best Original Screenplay
My Predictions:
Anora (Screenplay by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Screenplay by Brady Corbet and Monica Fastvold)
Hard Truths (Screenplay by Mike Leigh)
A Real Pain (Screenplay by Jesse Eisenberg)
The Substance (Screenplay by Coralie Fargeat)
On the cusp: His Three Daughters, September 5, All We Imagine as Light, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Predictions:
A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by Jay Cocks and James Mangold)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Divine Eye" Maclin, and John "Divine G" Whitfield)
Wicked (Screenplay by Winne Holzman and Dana Fox)
On the cusp: Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot, Queer, Nosferatu
Gut check: I kept Emilia Pérez in the mix solely because I feel I have to, but I sense a possibility of it being skipped, due to the many, many controversies around the film—especially around his lack of research during the writing process. If so, I would put in Nickel Boys, with its screenplay by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes.
Best Animated Feature
My Predictions:
Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Inside Out 2 (Pixar)
Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Netflix)
The Wild Robot (DreamWorks)
On the cusp: None. This is the only fathomable list. If Moana 2 makes it, I will scream.
Best International Feature
My Predictions:
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
Kneecap (Ireland)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
On the cusp: Vermiglio (Italy), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), Dahomey (Senegal), From Ground Zero (Palestine), Touch (Iceland), Armand (Norway)
Best Documentary Feature
My Predictions:
Daughters (Netflix)
No Other Land (No US Distribution)
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (Kino Lorber)
Sugarcane (National Geographic)
Will & Harper (Netflix)
On the cusp: Porcelain War, Black Box Diaries, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Dahomey
Best Cinematography
My Predictions:
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Conclave (Stéphane Fontaine)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Nickel Boys (Jomo Fray)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
On the cusp: Maria, Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown, Wicked
Gut check: If Wicked does get in here over any of these five, it’s winning Best Picture.
Best Editing
My Predictions:
Anora (Sean Baker)
Challengers (Marco Costa)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Dune: Part Two (Joe Walker)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)
On the cusp: The Brutalist, Nosferatu, September 5, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Civil War, Nickel Boys
Best Production Design
My Predictions:
The Brutalist (Judy Becker)
Conclave (Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico)
Dune: Part Two (Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau, and Patrice Vermette)
Nosferatu (Craig Lathrop)
Wicked (Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales)
On the cusp: Gladiator II (despite looking like Restoration Hardware threw up on the screen), Saturday Night, Maria, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Substance, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Complete Unknown
Best Costume Design
My Predictions:
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Dune: Part Two (Jacqueline West)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates)
Maria (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
On the cusp: Nosferatu, A Complete Unknown, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Brutalist
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My Predictions:
A Different Man (Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman, and Aaron Saucier)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel and Simon Livet)
Nosferatu (Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton, and David White)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth, and Laura Blount)
On the cusp: Maria, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
My Predictions:
A Complete Unknown (Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey, and Donald Sylveste)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Cyril Holtz, Niels Barletta, and Erwan Kerzanet)
Gladiator II (Matthew Collinge, Danny Sheehan, Paul Massey, and Stéphane Bucher)
Wicked (Nancy Nugent Title, John Marquis, Andy Nelson, and Simon Hayes)
On the cusp: Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, Blitz
Best Visual Effects
My Predictions:
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Patrick Mahan)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke)
Twisters (Olivier Beaulieu, Bill Georgiou, Ben Snow, and Florian Witzel)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould, and David Shirk)
On the cusp: Civil War, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, Mufasa: The Lion King
Note: For both the Visual Effects and Sound categories, the short lists are only ten long. Truly, anything could happen. This writer feels that 2024 in film contained far too many monkeys and apes.
Best Original Score
My Predictions:
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Challengers (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
The Room Next Door (Alberto Iglesias)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)
On the cusp: Wicked, Sing Sing, Nosferatu, Blitz, Emilia Pérez, Inside Out 2
Pour one out for Hans Zimmer’s incredible, iconic score for Dune: Part Two, which was deemed ineligible by the Academy.
Best Original Song
My Predictions:
"Compress/Repress,” from Challengers (Music and lyrics by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Luca Guadagnino)
“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez (Music and lyrics by Clément Ducol and Camille)
“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing (Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander, Brandon Marcel, and Adrian Quesada)
“Kiss the Sky,” from The Wild Robot (Music and lyrics by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack, and Ali Tamposi)
“Harper and Will Go West,” from Will & Harper (Music and lyrics by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig, and Josh Greenbaum)
On the cusp: "“The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight), “Sick in the Head” (Kneecap), “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late), “"Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez)
Total Nominations by Film:
10: Wicked
9: The Brutalist, Conclave
8: Emilia Pérez
7: Dune: Part Two
6: Anora, A Complete Unknown
5: Sing Sing
3: Challengers, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Substance, The Wild Robot
2: Flow, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Will & Harper
1: Alien: Romulus, Daughters, A Different Man, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading. Who do you think will be nominated? If you’re reading after nominations are out, what do you think? Let me know in the comments or a message below.
Until tomorrow, friends.